The Politico Intelligence Group has released its third in the series of 2027 Presidential Polls with President Bola Tinubu and Nigeria Democratic Congress Presidential Candidate Peter Obi projected to win 13 states each.
The African Democratic Congress Presidential Candidate, Atiku Abubakar, whose nomination has now been nullified by a Federal High Court Sitting in Abuja, is projected to win 11 states .
President Tinubu and the All Progressive Congress Presidential Candidate is however slightly ahead of NDC Presidential candidate by a narrow margin.
In the two earlier polls conducted President Tinubu had had led the duo of Obi and Atiku, while the DC Presidential candidate was second in the first poll, the NDC Presidential Candidate swapped positions with him in the second poll.
The Group said “As it stands today, we project a slim margin of victory among the 3 leading Contestants with President Bola Ahmed leading with a small margin and Mr. Peter Obi coming second and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in third place, all with close margin.”
“We project 13 states for APC, 13 for NDC and 11 for ADC. APC will win all South West States and all North Central states. NDC will win all south East states, South South states with Kano and FCT. ADC will win all states in the North East and North west except Kano and Zamfara.’
The Group however stated “The above projection is with a caveat: if election is “free and fair” .
“As momentum begin to build towards 2027, the dynamics of our elections continue to change and electorate preferences continue to change as well, adding “The political field has changed dramatically. Any Politician that enters the field with the mentality of business as usual will face imminent defeat.”
The Group said there are about 68m new voters that will be voting for the first time in 2027 elections and majority of these voters are youths, pointing out unlike before, the young people between the ages of 18 and 49 will dominate the election.
In 2027 General Elections, we predict the highest turnout of voters in the history of our elections with about 40 percent turnover as against 29 percent in the last election.
It however observed from its field report that opposition parties are encountering stiff resistance to campaign, while the APC is witnessing internal bickerings, and noted that these may affect all the 3 parties in their own way.
The Group noted “It will be in the interest of the Nation for all stakeholders to ensure that the elections are peaceful, free and fair”, pointing out “This will be a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy and the country will be a better place for it.”
This is the third edition of the projected Electroral map for November, with more two more electroral maps, December and January before the 2027 General Elections.
The group said “In the past month of October 2026, campaign commenced among the 3 leading parties namely APC, ADC and NDC, adding that in same month, INEC released the preliminary voters register diluted with AI generated names in order to beat 90 days release before election by Law, but it ended up in controversy.
APC had its maiden inaugural Campaign at Kaduna led by the leader of the Party President Bola Tinubu.
The campaigns had economic debate on Subsidy generated by ADC Presidential Candidate Atiku Abubakar, who proposed a return to subsidy and the subsequent reduction in pump price by the federal government through NNPC for 30 days.
