Kaduna has never been a mere state. It is an idea, a laboratory, a battlefield where Nigeria’s national politics is first tested.
As INEC’s whistle blew on August 19 (Presidential/National Assembly) and September 19 (Governorship), Kaduna did not just start campaigning, it exploded.
With 18 parties on the ballot and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu himself choosing Kaduna for his national flag-off on October 24, 2026, the message is clear: Whoever wins Kaduna, wins the narrative of the North.
THE UBA SANI PHENOMENON: FROM PROTEGE TO POWER BROKER
Three years ago, Uba Sani was dismissed as a placeholder. Today, he is perhaps the most tactically astute governor in the North-West.
His first masterstroke was emotional intelligence. Where his predecessor, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, governed with bulldozers and brash edicts — demolishing markets, sacking teachers — Uba Sani governed with apologies and appointments. He visited Southern Kaduna’s burnt villages in Kaura and Jema’a, something El-Rufai avoided for eight years. He restored traditional rulers’ respect. That alone shifted votes.
His second masterstroke is the Jerry Adams Gambit. By nominating a Christian technocrat, Jerry Adams (Chairman KADIRS), as running mate and easing out Deputy Governor Hadiza Balarabe, he has reversed the Muslim-Muslim ticket.
In a state where religion is ballot paper, this is not tokenism; it is strategic rebalancing. Christians in Southern Kaduna who felt politically orphaned now have a reason to look at APC again.
His third masterstroke is Operation Bring Them Home. The return of Bashir Saidu, Jafaru Sani, Senators Abdu Kwari, Shehu Sani, and Suleiman Hunkuyi is not reconciliation, it is consolidation.
And the capture of Senator Sunday Marshall Katung from PDP is the final nail. Katung was PDP’s fortress in Southern Kaduna. His defection means APC now has boots in both Kajuru and Kachia.
Uba Sani’s boast of delivering 2 million votes for Tinubu may sound hyperbolic, but look at the infrastructure optics: Kaduna Light Rail revival, Abuja-Kaduna-Kano dualization, and the Kaduna-Birnin Gwari road project are now branded as “Tinubu’s love letter to Kaduna.” In politics, optics is votes.
THE OPPOSITION: ADC AND PDP – WOUNDED BUT NOT DEAD
The opposition story is a tragedy of ambition.
ADC under Isah Ashiru wanted to be the grand coalition. Its backers envisioned a replica of 2015: Atiku Abubakar’s money + El-Rufai’s brain + Ashiru’s grassroots. El-Rufai was even positioned as Deputy Chairman of Atiku’s Campaign Council. The intrigue was to make Kaduna the base to topple Tinubu.
What killed it? The classic Nigerian “cut and run” syndrome. After ADC primaries, those who lost tickets simply packed and returned to APC.
Overnight, ADC’s coalition became a carcass. Ashiru remains a resilient fighter — a man who has contested since 2019 — but resilience without structure is mere shouting.
PDP under Usman Bawa / Shehu Bawa (ABG) is playing the long game. Its leaders argue that APC dominates billboards because it dominates treasury, while PDP dominates living rooms. “They have Ahmadu Bello Way, we have the villages,” one PDP youth leader told me in Zaria. They still control ward-level structures in Igabi, Makarfi, and parts of Kaduna North.
But both ADC and PDP suffered a psychological blow in Kafanchan. Twelve of their LGA chairmen were remanded by a Kabala Magistrate Court for political violence, while an APC chieftain was reportedly released.
Even if legally justified, the optics of uneven justice have created fear and anger. In Southern Kaduna, perception is reality.
THE EL-RUFAI ENIGMA – THE MAN IN DETENTION WHO STILL CAMPAIGNS
No one can write Kaduna politics without a chapter on Malam Nasir El-Rufai. In detention since February 2026 over alleged financial recklessness and the wiretapping saga involving NSA Nuhu Ribadu, El-Rufai has spent over 220 days behind bars despite a N200 million bail.
He is physically absent but politically present.
For Uba Sani, his detention is convenient — no godfather to question his decisions.
For ADC, it is a campaign poster — “Free El-Rufai” chants now rent the air in Malali and Barnawa.
Will his ordeal birth sympathy votes or sink APC in Kaduna? That is the million-naira question.
VERDICT: WHO HOLDS THE ACE?
Today, APC holds the upper hand — not because it is loved, but because it is organized.
Uba Sani has incumbency, federal sympathy, and a rebranded inclusive image. His opponents have court cases, empty treasuries, and divided houses.
Yet Kaduna has a history of punishing arrogance. The voter in Rigasa worried about bandits, the farmer in Soba worried about fertilizer price, and the student in ABU Zaria worried about school fees — they do not care about defection arithmetic. They will ask: Did my life improve?
If APC answers that question with projects and peace, it will win. If not, even 2 million promised votes may become 2 million protest votes.
The battle for Kaduna has just begun
By Abdulbaki Ibrahim |
Public Affairs Analyst, Kano
Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani and Speaker House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abass
