Zamfara, epicentre of banditry in North-West, is today most politically volatile state in Nigeria ahead of February 6, 2027.
What happens there will not be decided by party logos, but by one question: who can secure farms and villages?
First Hurricane: March 9, 2026
Gov. Dauda Lawal Dare defected from PDP to APC citing PDP crisis and need for federal collaboration on security.
Overnight, Zamfara House of Assembly with 24 members became 100% APC.
On paper, masterstroke — Lawal now shared party with President Tinubu, former Govs. Abdulaziz Yari and Bello Matawalle, and federal security architecture.
In reality, time bomb.
APC Zamfara divided between Yari and Matawalle camps since 2019. Now third camp — Lawal camp — entered same house with incumbency. No genuine reconciliation, no power-sharing. Everyone wore same broom.
Second Hurricane: October 4, 2026
Nine serving members resigned from APC to ADC. They are voices of most battered constituencies:
- Aliyu Ango Kagara – Talata Mafara South (Yari heartland)
- Muktar Nasir – Kaura Namoda North
- Faruk Dosara Musa – Maradun I
- Basiru Bello – Bungudu West
- Bashir A. Masama – Bukkuyum North
- Ibrahim T. Tukur – Bakura
- Nasiru Abdullahi – Maru North
- Yusuf Muhammad Anka – Anka
- Bashar Aliyu – Gummi I
Spokesman Hon. Kagara alleged crime was raising insecurity on floor of House. Constituencies Maru, Anka, Bukkuyum, Gummi, Maradun, Bakura are killing fields. Villages taxed, farms abandoned.
They were suspended Feb 2024 for alleged gross misconduct, extended May 2026. For 32 months, they claim no salaries, allowances. Even after joining APC with Governor, they allege denial of fair hearing.
Within 48 hours, 442 former councillors also dumped APC — hollowing grassroots base.
Third Hurricane: October 20, 2026 — Bamayi in Gwashi
Today, anger left chambers to streets. As Eagle Times Vol 1 No 20 Tuesday’s October 20, 2026 edition cover reports, youths in Gwashi, Bungudu LGA chased Deputy Governor Mani Mummuni Masamar Gwashi chanting “Bamayi” — we don’t want.
Gwashi is in Bungudu West — constituency of Hon. Basiru Bello who defected to ADC. Street has validated defection.
Defection is no longer elite politics, it is street validation.
While Zamfara’s 9 lawmakers defected over insecurity, the rest of North-West moved to contain similar tension.
On Tuesday in Katsina, Sen. Abdulaziz Yari led Ganduje, Aliero, Wamakko, Yarima, Shema and Kebbi Gov Idris to Emir of Gwandu, Emir of Katsina and Emir of Daura seeking prayers not endorsements, preaching that South should complete 8 years for justice — an attempt to reconcile Radda-Masari rift that mirrors Zamfara’s Yari-Matawalle-Lawam rift.
In Kaduna, government announced Oct 24 Township Stadium will host Tinubu’s inaugural 2027 campaign launch with 12 subcommittees, while Gov Uba Sani warned against politicizing insecurity.
In Kano, Kwankwaso drew massive crowd in Rogo Tuesday as NDC candidates petitioned over intimidation ahead of INEC final list Oct 24.
In Zamfara itself, on Tuesday, Police conducted peace accord signing for all parties in Gusau-Dansadau, Kaura Namoda, Bukkuyum, Maradun axis — the very constituencies of the 9 defectors — while Gwashi youths’ “Bamayi” chant against Deputy Governor shows street is ahead of elite reconciliation.
Zamfara is not alone; North-West is simultaneously campaigning and appeasing.
Wike-Lawal Sideshow
FCT Minister Nyesom Wike boasted “I chased him out of PDP despite his billions” after Lawal dismissed him as “that guy.”
Lawal replied Wike destroys PDP to help APC, while he genuinely in APC for security support.
This personal ego war is a political entertainment. But it is dangerous. It distracts from real issue: shifting national attention from 533,000 hectares farmland abandoned in Zamfara/Katsina alone (North-West Compact data). Farmer in Anka does not care who chased who. He cares if he can farm tomorrow.
Who Has Upper Hand?
Frankly, no one. Gov. Lawal has federal might and incumbency but legitimacy questioned from three sides: old PDP loyalists betrayed, Yari/Matawalle loyalists seeing him as intruder, nine lawmakers saying intolerant of oversight.
Senator Yari, as DG of the Tinubu 2027 Campaign, has national leverage, and Talata Mafara South – where Kagara comes from, is his political heartland. His failure to retain even that Assembly seat is telling.
Bello Matawalle, Minister of State for Defence, has the security portfolio but failed to attend the last reconciliation meeting convened by the Yari camp. His absence speaks volumes.
The real winner is ADC.
In a state where APC had 24/24 seats after Lawal’s defection, ADC now has 9 seats overnight without contesting an election.
Security is the Real Kingmaker.
In Zamfara, the ballot issue is not zoning, not godfatherism, not Wike. It is security.
The voter in Shinkafi, Zurmi, Maradun will ask only one question: Who stopped the killings in my village? Who brought back my farm?
Until that question is answered, any political calculation is pedestrian.
How to Contain and Subdue This Crisis
Immediate APC Stakeholders Truce:
The National Chairman must convene a closed-door Zamfara Elders Meeting with Lawal, Yari, and Matawalle in one room. No aides, no disturbances.
Share power .
Agree on 2027 ticket formula now, not later.
Legislative Reconciliation:
The Assembly Speaker, Hon. Bilyaminu Moriki, must lift the suspension or negotiate. Pay the 32-month arrears. Even if the nine have left for ADC, paying them and giving them fair hearing will send a signal to Zamfara people that government listens when you talk about insecurity.
Security First Policy:
President Tinubu should order a joint military-police Operation Restore Farm in Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto. Secure the 533,000 abandoned hectares before rainy season.
End the Wike-Lawal Media War:
Both are now in APC directly or by proxy. The party should call them to order.
Zamfara’s tragedy should not be reduced to a comedy of insults.
Zamfara is not just another state. It is the litmus test for whether Nigeria can turn the tide against banditry.
If APC manages its internal hurricane well, it will retain Zamfara. If not, ADC and other forces will harvest from the farm of anger that insecurity has cultivated.
Abdulbaki Ibrahim
Is a Public Affairs Analyst with years of institutional experience,writes from Kano, Nigeria
