The latest foreign trade statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics reveal that Nigeria’s crude oil production increased in Volumes, even as exports declined by N3.18tn in the first half of 2025 .
While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported a 12.7 per cent rise in crude oil output during the period, export earnings from crude fell by more than 11 per cent year-on-year.
Between January and June 2025, crude oil exports totalled N24.92tn, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024. This represents an 11.3 per cent decline in value, or a loss of N3.18tn.
Further analysis of the foreign trade data from the NBS showed that in the first quarter of 2025, crude exports stood at N12.96tn, compared to N15.49tn in Q1 2024.
The difference of N2.53tn amounts to a 16.3 per cent fall. By the second quarter, the decline was less steep: exports dropped from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025, a reduction of N642bn or 5.1 per cent.0:00 / 0:00
The contribution of crude oil to total exports also weakened. In Q1 2024, crude accounted for 80.8 per cent of Nigeria’s exports, but by Q1 2025 this had dropped to 62.9 per cent, a decline of nearly 18 percentage points.
The downward trend continued in Q2, with crude making up 52.6 per cent of exports, compared to 71.2 per cent in Q2 2024 — a decline of about 18.6 percentage points.
By contrast, non-crude oil exports surged. In H1 2025, they more than doubled to N18.43tn, compared with N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a growth of 109.6 per cent or an additional N9.64tn. Non-oil exports alone rose from N3.74tn to N6.21tn, an increase of N2.47tn or 66 per cent.
Overall trade also expanded. Total exports in H1 2025 reached N43.35tn, up from N36.89tn in H1 2024, reflecting a 17.5 per cent increase. Imports, on the other hand, rose by a slimmer margin of 6.9 per cent, from N28.72tn in H1 2024 to N30.71tn in H1 2025.
This contributed to an improved trade balance, which grew by 54.6 per cent, from N8.17tn in H1 2024 to N12.64tn in H1 2025. It was further observed that crude oil’s dominance in Nigeria’s export profile is being eroded, with its share sliding from 76.2 per cent in H1 2024 to 57.5 per cent in H1 2025.
The development highlights a paradox in Africa’s largest oil producer where rising output has not translated into stronger export performance, raising questions about domestic absorption, global oil demand, and pricing conditions.
The data suggest that while Nigeria is pumping more crude, weaker global prices, rising domestic utilisation, or both, may be weighing on export receipts.
