“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded the alarm over Nigeria’s persistent budgeting inaccuracies, highlighting a troubling pattern of overoptimism in revenue and spending projections spanning 2011 to 2023.

In its new report titled Fiscal Forecasting Errors in Nigeria, the IMF revealed that budget planners consistently overestimated government revenues by an average of 1.8% of GDP annually.

This amounts to a staggering 36% above what was actually collected, raising serious concerns about the credibility and reliability of Nigeria’s fiscal planning.

A major culprit, according to the IMF, is the government’s unrealistic oil production forecasts. Despite adopting conservative oil price benchmarks, Nigeria failed to meet its oil production targets in 11 out of the 13 years reviewed.

The shortfall is blamed on recurring challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and technical constraints.

The report ultimately questions the effectiveness of Nigeria’s national budget as a sound economic policy tool, urging a rethink of forecasting methods and more realistic planning to restore fiscal credibility.”