RIDER: ADAMAWA: FINTIRI BUILT A FLYOVER. BARKINDO DUG A BOREHOLE. ATIKU IS FIGHTING FOR HIS BALLOT IN ABUJA. ADAMAWA WAS NOT INVITED TO VILLA ON NOVEMBER 5
- 5,000 APC LEFT IN 24 HOURS. CAMPAIGN ATTACKED IN GOVERNOR’S OWN VILLAGE. AND THE SON OF ADAMAWA MAY BE REMOVED FROM THE BALLOT WITHOUT ADAMAWA VOTING.
Adamawa is moving.
Not yesterday, not last year, but tonight, right now, under our feet, in Yola, in Gombi, in Hong, in Toungo, in Kurchiirga, in Jada, in every ward where a voter is asking a question no governor can answer with a flyover, and no chairman can answer with a letter: who will give us water, who will give us peace, who will give us a party that does not fight itself in public and then ask the voter to fight for it in private, and who will give Atiku, the son of Adamawa, his ballot?
INEC received 130 petitions across the country, upheld 66, rejected 64, then received 69 petitions for governorship alone, and then the Supreme Court judgment of September 24, 2026 on Section 77(5)-(7) Electoral Act — mandatory membership register — became the new weapon, the new bomb, the new excuse, the new shield, and every candidate who was omitted now has a weapon, every candidate who was included now has a fear, and every voter who thought he knew his ballot now knows he knows nothing, until the court speaks, until INEC speaks, until the register speaks.
And in Adamawa, the register has already spoken, and the court has already spoken, and INEC has not yet spoken, and Villa has spoken without Adamawa, and that is the storm.
- ADAMAWA — THE DEFECTION IS NO LONGER ONE-WAY, THE CONSOLIDATION HAS CRACKED
On October 30, 2026, 24 hours after Gov. Fintiri inaugurated his own APC Campaign Council headed by himself, 5,000 APC chieftains defected to APM, and they did not sneak out at night, they walked out in daylight, with a letter, with a leader, with a grievance, with a new party, and with the confidence of men who have watched consolidation and decided consolidation is a lie.
Leader: Umar Barkindo, former Yola South Chairman, former Permanent Secretary, a man who knows the civil service, who knows the ward, who knows the register, who wrote a letter dated October 26, 2026 to Makama A Ward Chairman, a letter that said, in cold, formal, devastating language: “I wish to officially notify you that I have withdrawn my membership registration from APC… My withdrawal is personal.”
Quote: “Our departure was to give Adamawa people a leader with vision and mission to deliver democracy dividends. Party lacks justice and credentials to win in free and fair contest.”
Barkindo joined APM governorship candidate Abduralman Haske, who left APC in September, and others followed — Ex-Deputy Gov Martins Babale, ex-PDP Chairman Shehu Tahir who had defected to APC, Peter Fwa senatorial aspirant, Variti Nzonzo Reps aspirant — all citing “irreconcilable differences,” all citing the same word, irreconcilable, as if the party is a marriage that cannot be saved, as if the divorce is final, as if the court, not the ward, will now decide who owns Adamawa.
Same week, APC campaign team was attacked in Kurchiirga — governor’s own village — plus Hong, Gombi, Toungo LGAs, forcing suspension of campaigns, and Fintiri’s SSG Awwal Tukur then ordered all campaign committees to submit work plans by November 6, 2026 for harmonization, as if a work plan can harmonize a village that attacks its own governor’s campaign, as if paper can stop stone, as if harmonization can stop humiliation.
BITE:
Channels TV analysis said: “Only recently Adamawa appeared to be experiencing major consolidation around APC. The reported membership figure has not been independently verified. But involvement of identifiable former LGA chairman establishes this is more than anonymous claim.”
BITE:
In Adamawa, defection is no longer one-way. It is two-way traffic. Yesterday APC was receiving. Today APC is bleeding. Tomorrow, who will receive, and who will bleed?
ANECDOTE —
IDP returnee in Gombi, a man who has returned home and still sleeps with one eye open, told me: “Fintiri gave us flyover, but Barkindo gave us borehole when he was council chairman. Now both say follow them. We will follow who gives us water to drink under flyover.”
That is Adamawa in one sentence.
Flyover without water is a bridge to nowhere. Borehole without flyover is water without road. And the voter will follow water, because water is life, and flyover is photo, and in 2027, Adamawa will not vote for photo, it will vote for water.
- ADAMAWA’S SON — ATIKU ABUBAKAR AND THE BALLOT THAT IS IN COURT, NOT IN ADAMAWA
And now, Adamawa readers, this is why this report matters to you more than to any other state in Nigeria, because the man who is fighting for his ballot in Abuja is your son, is Atiku Abubakar, Waziri Adamawa, former Vice President, ADC presidential candidate, son of Jada, son of Adamawa, and his ballot is not in Jada, his ballot is not in Yola, his ballot is in a court file in Abuja, and his fate is not in your hands, his fate is in INEC’s hands, in Court of Appeal’s hands, in a Certified True Copy that INEC says it has not yet seen.
Here is the saga, as it stands Sunday, November 8, 2026:
On November 5, Justice Lifu, Federal High Court Abuja, nullified the interim leadership of ADC under David Mark and voided Atiku’s nomination as ADC presidential candidate. Suit FHC/ABJ/CS/1819/2025, filed by Nafiu Bala Gombe.
On November 6, ADC Mark faction filed Notice of Appeal + Stay at Court of Appeal. Letter to INEC stamped RECEIVED 6 NOV 2026. Stay NOT yet granted. Appeal alone does NOT suspend judgment.
INEC National Commissioner Mohammed Kudu Haruna, speaking to Sunday Punch: “We can’t take a position until we see the judgement ourselves. We have to get the certified true copy because we don’t take decisions or reports of what the court said based on reports because the reports could be wrong.”
And: “We are all here till next week when the commission meets. We will have to meet over it.”
Atiku / Amaechi still on INEC portal. INEC has not acted. INEC has not removed.
INEC has not enforced.
INEC says: bring me paper.
ADC state chairmen via Kennedy Odion: threaten nationwide protest if INEC does NOT enforce Lifu and replace Mark with Gombe team. They also urged INEC to reopen its portal to enable ADC to conduct fresh primaries where necessary.
Atiku: “I am in this race” / “Nothing will keep me off ballot.”
And same Sunday, November 8, Rotimi Amaechi, ADC vice-presidential candidate, speaking on Mainland 98.3 FM: “It could cause a civil war if not properly managed. When we heard the news, we quickly met, myself and the presidential candidate and the chairman of the party, and we said: ‘please, lower the tempo’.” He accused APC of trying to fuel the dispute and discourage voters after what he described as a show of support for ADC in Sokoto.
BITE:
One ADC begs INEC to wait. Another ADC threatens INEC to act. INEC says: bring me paper. In Nigeria, a judgment without Ceetified True Copy is a rumour with a wig — and tonight INEC said it out loud.
BITE:
In Adamawa, Atiku is not a candidate. Atiku is a son. And a son who is removed from ballot by a court in Abuja, without Adamawa voting, will be felt in Adamawa as a wound, not as a judgment. Adamawa will ask: if you can remove our son without our vote, what is our vote for?
ANECDOTE —
An old man in Jada, Atiku’s home, told me on phone: “We gave Nigeria a Vice President. We gave Nigeria a candidate. Now Abuja says candidate is void. Void for what? For paper? For register? For Ceetified True Copy? We in Jada do not have CTC. We have vote. Let us vote, and let the vote decide void, not the court.”
That is Adamawa in one sentence.
Jada does not have Certified True Copy. Jada has vote.
And in 2027, Adamawa will not vote for CTC, it will vote for its son, if INEC allows its son to be on the ballot.
And Adamawa is not demobilised. In Kano, ADC Kano State Atikulated Team video of November 7: “Zamu zabi Atiku Abubakar a matsayin shugaban kasa” — we will vote Atiku as president. In Kaduna, Waziri Mobilization Network 2027 inauguration, November 7, Kaduna — blue caps, banner “ZABI AYYUKA, BA ALKAWURA BA. 2027 ATIKU ABUBAKAR SHUGABAN KASA” — certificates, hall, grassroots organising. In Kaduna, ADC North West Zonal Congress, National Office, Kaduna, November 7 — dozens in ADC caps, calm, organised. In Kaduna, Dino Melaye at ADC State Headquarters, declaring “the greatest palace in this country is the presidential villa and that is where we are going to by the grace of God.”
BITE:
In Kano, judgment is paper. Mobilisation is power. ADC is appointing, inaugurating, and campaigning while its candidacy is in court. And in Adamawa, mobilisation is not campaign. Mobilisation is defence of a son.
- THE MIDDLE BELT PARLEY — ADAMAWA WAS NOT INVITED, BUT ADAMAWA WAS DISCUSSED
On November 5, 2026, the same day Justice Lifu nullified Atiku, President Tinubu met a delegation in Villa that was called Middle Belt in one paper, North-East / North-Central in another paper, and neither in truth.
Adamawa was not there. Adamawa was not invited. Adamawa was not represented.
Who was there, as listed in Daily Trust, Danlami Nagari Sani — Problems with that ‘Middle Belt’ parley with Tinubu:
Gen. Christopher Musa, Minister of Defence — Kaduna, North-West. Gov. Caleb Mutfwang — Plateau. Gov. Agbu Kefas — Taraba. Gen. T.Y. Danjuma — Taraba. Yakubu Dogara, ex-Speaker — Bauchi. Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi — Kebbi, North-West. Thomas Etuh — Kogi. Dr Pogu Bitrus — Borno.
Taraba was there twice. Bauchi was there. Borno was there. Plateau was there. Adamawa was not there. Benue was not there.
And Daily Trust asked the question Adamawa must now ask:
If Musa is from Kaduna, North-West, and Bamaiyi is from Kebbi, North-West, how is this a Middle Belt delegation? If Wase, Deputy Speaker 2019-2023 from Plateau, is absent, how is this a North-Central delegation? If Benue, which buried Yelewata, is absent, how is this a security delegation?
Sani’s charge: the emerging Middle Belt definition is being used to exclude people on basis of religion, regardless of geography, ancestry, contribution. Muslim ethnic and religious leaders, no matter their pedigree, are deliberately being excluded from Middle Belt simply because of religious identity. Is this genuinely to promote interests of central communities, or is it becoming a convenient political instrument for creating religious boundaries within Northern Nigeria?
Dogara said after: leaders came to express solidarity, rally support for Tinubu second term. Sunday Dare post on X said engagement was to demonstrate disposition towards supporting Tinubu second-term ambition. Dogara claimed insecurity declining in Middle Belt, citing Abuja-Kaduna highway.
BITE:
In Villa, they called it Middle Belt. In Kaduna, Musa is North-West. In Kebbi, Bamaiyi is North-West. In Plateau, Wase is absent. In Benue, Alia is absent. In Adamawa, Atiku is in court. One delegation, two names, four absences, one son in court, zero explanation.
BITE:
On November 5, Villa said insecurity is declining. On November 5, Majelisa buried a 14-year-old girl, Amina Ya’u, shot on her farm. One day, two Nigerias. One Villa, one farm. And the farm does not believe the Villa.
ANECDOTE —
A Taraba elder in Jalingo told me: “Danjuma went to Villa to speak for Middle Belt. Kefas went to Villa to speak for Taraba. Who spoke for Taraba’s Muslims? Who spoke for Adamawa? Who spoke for Benue’s dead in Yelewata? Nobody. Because when you call a meeting Middle Belt, you have already decided who is inside and who is outside, before the meeting starts.”
And Adamawa elder in Yola told me: “On November 5, they took our son to court in Abuja, and they took our neighbours to Villa in Abuja, and they left Adamawa at home. They took Atiku to court, they took Kefas and Danjuma to Villa, and they left Adamawa with Fintiri and Barkindo fighting in Kurchiirga. Is Adamawa in Nigeria, or is Adamawa only in court?”
That is Adamawa in one sentence. Adamawa in court, Adamawa not in Villa, Adamawa fighting in village, Adamawa waiting for ballot. And in 2027, Adamawa will not vote for Villa, it will vote for itself.
- HOW TO CONTAIN — BEFORE CAMPAIGN, NOT AFTER
*
Adamawa must do five things, and it must do them now, before campaign, not after, before blood, not after burial:
(1) Stop the attacks in Kurchiirga, Hong, Gombi, Toungo — campaign must be protected, even in governor’s village, especially in governor’s village; (2) Let INEC and court settle who owns the register — one party, one register, one chairman;
(3) Let INEC meet next week and decide Atiku — one CTC, one meeting, one decision, not one week of rumour;
(4) Let Villa explain Middle Belt — one definition, one inclusion, one Nigeria, not one religion, not one exclusion;
(5) Let the voter decide between flyover and borehole, between Fintiri and Barkindo, between Atiku and Tinubu — not the stone, not the thug, not the work plan, not the court alone, not the Villa alone.
Upper hand?
Fintiri has a Campaign Council headed by himself. Barkindo has 5,000 chieftains who left in 24 hours. Atiku has a ballot in court. Tinubu has a Villa parley without Adamawa. Who has upper hand when the governor’s council is attacked in the governor’s village, when the Majority of yesterday becomes the minority of today, when the son of Adamawa is on the portal but not on the paper, when INEC says “we will meet next week” and the voter says “we will vote on February 6”, when Villa says “Middle Belt” and Adamawa says “we were not there”?
SUSPENSE:
Will Adamawa have Fintiri Police, Barkindo Police, Haske Police, and Atiku Police — same Yola-Gombi road, four loyalties, one voter, one ballot?
SUSPENSE:
If INEC removes Atiku next week, will Adamawa accept it as judgment, or reject it as wound?
If INEC saves Atiku next week, will the other ADC accept it as judgment, or reject it as politics? If Villa calls another Middle Belt parley without Adamawa, will Adamawa accept it as representation, or reject it as exclusion?
If the man who built the flyover cannot walk in his own village, whose flyover is it?
If the man who dug the borehole cannot drink in his own ward, whose borehole is it?
If the son of Adamawa cannot be on the ballot in his own state, whose ballot is it?
If the delegation that claims to speak for the North does not include Adamawa, whose North is it?
Adamawa feeds Nigeria in day.
It bleeds in night.
It gives Nigeria a Vice President in history.
And in 2027, it will vote in the daylight to decide whether Adamawa will drink water — or drink only promises, whether Adamawa will vote for its son — or watch its son be removed by paper, whether Adamawa will be in Villa — or only in court.
This is not an independent Situation Report and Political Analysis, not a campaign document or endorsement of any candidate or party.
FOOTNOTE:
This report is based on public statements, party statements, court reports, and press reports available as at November 2026. Defection figures are as reported by party / press sources, not INEC, which does not record defections. Anecdotes are field notes, not official statistics. Allegations are as alleged, not yet proven. Any candidate or party mentioned is entitled to reply.
SOURCES FOR CLARITY:
- Adamawa: 5,000 APC to APM, October 30, Barkindo letter October 26, Haske APM candidate, attacks Kurchiirga / Hong / Gombi / Toungo, SSG order November 6.
- Atiku Saga: Justice Lifu Nov 5, FHC/ABJ/CS/1819/2025, Nafiu Bala Gombe, ADC appeal + stay November 6, stay NOT granted, INEC Haruna Sunday Punch November 8 — CTC, meeting next week, Atiku/Amaechi still on portal, Odion protest threat, Amaechi Mainland 98.3 FM Nov 8 — civil war warning.
- Middle Belt Parley: Daily Trust, Danlami Nagari Sani, Nov 5 Villa meeting, Musa, Mutfwang, Kefas, Danjuma, Dogara, Bamaiyi, Etuh, Bitrus, Wase absent, Benue absent, Adamawa absent, Dogara insecurity claim, Sunday Dare X post.
- Supreme Court: September 24, 2026, Section 77(5)-(7) membership register.
- INEC: 130 petitions, 66 upheld, 64 rejected, 69 governorship alone.
- Mobilisation: Kano Atikulated Team November 7, Kaduna Waziri Network Nov 7, Kaduna Zonal Congress November 7, Dino Melaye Kaduna.
Abdulbaki Ibrahim |
Public Affairs Analyst, Kano, Nigeria.
